Pope Francis’ Death Sparks Surge in Papal Betting Markets
Pope Francis, the leader of the Roman Catholic Church, passed away early on Monday at the age of 88. His death occurred just hours after he delivered a blessing during Easter festivities in Vatican City.

Papal Election Sparks Market Upheaval
His death has initiated a period of deep mourning among Catholics worldwide while also sparking a surge of activity on online prediction platforms. Born Jorge Mario Bergoglio in Argentina, Pope Francis made history in 2013 by becoming the first Latin American to ascend to the papacy. His leadership spanned more than a decade and was marked by advocacy for social justice, addressing global challenges like climate change and poverty, and pushing for greater inclusion of LGBTQ+ individuals within the Church.
Following his passing, the process to select a new pope is now underway. The College of Cardinals is expected to convene within two weeks, as tradition dictates. Historically, a new pontiff is chosen within 15 to 20 days of a pope’s death.
Meanwhile, the online response has been fast. On the crypto-based prediction site Polymarket, major changes occurred in the market tracking whether a new pope would be chosen in 2025. Prior to Monday, over $1 million had been wagered on the belief that no papal change would occur this year. With the pope’s unexpected death, those bets have lost, and the market has flipped.
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Pietro Parolin Leads Betting
Polymarket also features an active market on who will become the next pope. Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s former Secretary of State, currently leads with a 36% chance of election, according to odds. Another frontrunner is Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines, whose progressive views closely align with those of Pope Francis.
Altogether, wagers on the next pope have surpassed $2.7 million, making it one of the most bet upon markets on the platform. Some early bettors could see significant profits due to their timely predictions.
However, Polymarket is facing criticism and even being blocked in some countries for profiting from what some view as morally questionable bets. The platform, which operates in a regulatory gray area, has previously come under fire for allowing speculation on sensitive topics such as disaster rescues and the health of political figures. As the Church prepares both to honor Pope Francis’ legacy and to elect his successor, this intersection of mourning, faith, and betting is raising ethical concerns about making money from tragic events.
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