Assassination Attempt Significantly Boosts Trump’s 2024 Presidential Odds
Following the attempted assassination of Donald Trump at a Pennsylvania rally over the weekend, the betting odds on him winning this year’s presidential election have significantly skyrocketed.
Donald Trump election odds shorten following assassination attempt.
LISTEN TO THIS ARTICLE:Before the incident, many bookmakers already had Trump as "the favorite". The New Zealand-based online market PredictIt had Trump’s odds at 59 cents to the dollar. Following the shooting, these odds climbed to 66 cents, while Joe Biden’s fell to 22 cents. Similarly, on the Ethereum-based prediction platform Polymarket, traders’ confidence in Trump increased from 50% to 70%.
Parallels Drawn to Attack on President Reagan
During the rally, 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks fired at Trump from a nearby rooftop. The Secret Service quickly intervened, but not before one attendee was killed and two others critically injured. The attacker was subsequently killed by police. Trump was fortunate to escape with only a minor injury to his ear and he quickly reaffirmed his commitment to campaigning.
The assassination attempt drew parallels with the 1981 attack on President Reagan, which led to a surge in public support. Nick Ferres, chief investment officer at Vantage Point Asset Management, noted that such events tend to “consolidate support and reduce electoral uncertainty”, making a landslide win more likely. Geopolitical strategist Tina Fordham agreed and said that the assassination attempt is likely to benefit Trump’s campaign.
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High-Profile Endorsements Follow Assassination Attempt
In the aftermath of the assault, Trump received numerous high-profile endorsements. Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk publicly praised Trump’s toughness and resilience. Trump was also endorsed by billionaire investor Bill Ackman, who said he was backing Trump after careful consideration. This wave of support extended to the cryptocurrency sector, with figures like Justin Sun and the Winklevoss twins also expressing their backing.
Global leaders and American politicians alike condemned the act of violence. President Joe Biden expressed relief that Trump was unharmed and emphasized that America must reject all forms of violence.
The shooting incident affected more than political betting markets. For instance, Bitcoin’s price surged to nearly $60,000, and various Trump-themed meme coins saw significant gains as it is widely believed that a Trump victory would create a favorable environment for digital currencies, given his previous endorsements of the sector.
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