Analysts Believe Thailand Casinos Could Outpace Singapore
Thailand's potential move toward casino legalization could see the country's gaming market surpass Singapore's current industry performance, according to an analysis by Citigroup. The report suggests that Thailand has the capacity to implement a structured gaming industry "as quickly and as efficiently" as Singapore did when it launched its casino industry two decades ago.
The Wat Arun Temple in Bangkok, Thailand at dusk. (Source: Tourism Thailand)
LISTEN TO THIS ARTICLE:With a fully developed casino market, Thailand could reach an annual gross gaming revenue (GGR) of approximately $9.1 billion, which would place it among the top global gaming markets, trailing only Macau and Las Vegas. This analysis comes as Thailand considers a new framework for legalized gambling as a means to stimulate tourism and economic growth.
Related: Plans for Thailand Casinos Could Advance Before Year's EndThe Citigroup analysis, led by analysts George Choi, Preenapa Detchsri and Timothy Chau, outlines a potential casino licensing structure in Thailand, which includes two potential licenses for Bangkok and one each for popular tourist destinations like Pattaya, Phuket, and Chiang Mai. These locations, because they're well-established among foreign tourists, are viewed as prime spots for casino resorts.
Citigroup's revenue projections assume that a legal framework for casinos could pass as early as mid-2025, with Deputy Finance Minister Julapun Amornvivat recently reaffirming the Thai government's commitment to pushing forward a revised draft law by the end of 2024. Once approved by the council of state, a competitive bidding process for licenses is expected to follow swiftly, according to the analysis.
Comparatively, the Singaporean market currently generates significant gaming revenue, having reported $5.11 billion in GGR in 2023, a year marked by post-pandemic recovery in the city-state's tourism sector. This figure represents a 56% year-on-year increase and positions Singapore as a key player in the global gaming market.
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Shifting the Gaming Paradigm
The Citigroup analysis notes that a fully established Thai gaming industry could potentially reshape the international casino revenue landscape. As a result, Thailand's earnings are projected to outpace Singapore's existing casino duopoly, which consists of Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa.
Despite the projected growth, Citigroup indicates that the first casino resorts in Thailand may not open for another six years. This timeframe considers the processes of legal approval, licensing, and construction, with Citigroup suggesting that the timeline could resemble Singapore's path to casino development. The analysts believe the Thai government's recent steps reflect a strong commitment to using gaming legalization as a key driver of tourism and economic activity, as shown by the progress of the legalization efforts to date.
Citigroup's projections also draw attention to the significant foreign interest in Thailand's potential gaming industry. Several international casino brands, including operators from Macau, have reportedly shown interest in expanding their investments into the Thai market. The draft bill currently under consideration includes a proposal for 30-year casino licenses, which would be eligible for a 10-year renewal. Each licensed casino resort would require a minimum investment of approximately $2.88 billion.
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