Analyst Predicts Solid Gaming Growth in Macau for 2025
Seaport Research Partners has forecasted a 9% rise in earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) for Macau casino properties in 2025. This growth is estimated to bring EBITDA levels to around $8.4 billion.
LISTEN TO THIS ARTICLE:The forecast extends through 2027, with an expected increase to $9.9 billion, equating to a compound annual growth rate of 9% from 2024 to 2027. Vitaly Umansky, an analyst with Seaport Research Partners, outlined these projections in a recent report, citing growth trends in gross gaming revenue (GGR) and strategic operational shifts in the Macau casino industry as key drivers.
Related: Macau to Receive Huge Increase in 2025 Junket-Related Tax RevenueThe Macau casino sector is expected to see a 7% rise in GGR for 2025. This anticipated growth, along with consistent yearly increases, is projected to result in a parallel 9% rise in EBITDA across the industry.
Official data reveals that Macau's GGR for 2024 reached MOP226.78 billion, equivalent to $28.27 billion, marking a 23.9% year-on-year growth. These figures highlight the region's strong recovery following significant challenges in prior years.
Despite the promising growth outlook, the industry has experienced a reduction in EBITDA margins compared to pre-pandemic performance. Seaport Research Partners reported a drop in margins from 29.5% in 2019 to 28.4% in 2023, with an additional slight decline to 28% in 2024.
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Macau Gaming Continues to Evolve
The decline has been linked to higher operating costs and increased player reinvestment as properties expanded operations during the post-COVID-19 reopening in early 2023. However, Seaport expects a gradual recovery, with EBITDA margins predicted to rise to 28.5% in 2025 and 29% in 2026. Although these levels remain below those of 2019, the upward trend suggests that the industry is regaining stability and profitability.
According to the report, a key factor in the industry's recovery is an improved business mix that emphasizes reduced dependency on low-margin VIP gaming and greater focus on higher-margin mass-market segments. Non-gaming revenue, while a smaller contributor, has also played a role in enhancing the business mix. Seaport expects revenue growth to outpace cost increases in 2025, further supporting margin improvements while keeping player reinvestment relatively stable as a share of GGR.
Shifts in market share are anticipated within the Macau casino industry this year. Larger operators such as Sands China Ltd and Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd are expected to gain, while smaller operators may face challenges, especially if the recovery in base-mass gaming outpaces current forecasts.
Meanwhile, CreditSights Inc, a division of the Fitch group, predicts that Macau's casino GGR will reach MOP245 billion in 2025, reinforcing the positive growth outlook for the region's gaming sector.
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